In 2023 the PP and Vox together won 1.4 points more of the vote than PSOE and Sumar. The 52 provincial districts turned that into 170 seats against 152. Spain votes again in four weeks, so here is the machine, and a dial for every party.
PP plus Vox won 11,217,837 votes. PSOE plus Sumar won 10,866,714. How many more seats did the first pair get?
Part of the story: the PP (137 seats from 8.16 million votes, 59,568 votes per seat) is strong in many mid-sized provinces where a lead is rewarded, while PSOE (121 seats, 64,642 per seat) and especially Sumar (31 seats, 98,226 per seat) pile up votes in places where they finish second. Both blocs fell short of 176; the other 28 seats went to regional and small lists.
| List (2023) | Votes | Seats | Votes per seat |
|---|
Votes per seat are my own division of the published totals (votes divided by seats).
Set a national vote share for each party. The simulator applies it to all 52 districts with the real rules: D'Hondt in every province, 3% of valid votes needed to win a seat. This is a what-if on 2023 data, not a forecast.
Each tile is a district, sorted by size, with one block per seat. A gold frame means the seat count differs from 2023 under your dials. Click one to see the D'Hondt quotients that decide it.
Under your current dials, these are the ten closest last-seat contests anywhere in Spain, and how many points of vote the runner-up would need in that province to take it.
From the 2023 baseline, raise one party's share by one point (spread proportionally over its districts) and see what happens.
| +1 point for | Own seats | PP+Vox | PSOE+Sumar |
|---|
In this model a single point is worth 3 seats to the PP and Sumar, 4 to Vox and 5 to PSOE, because many districts are decided by a fraction of a point. These are model outputs under the stated assumptions, not predictions.