New Zealand general electionPolling day Saturday 7 November 2026
Opportunity gets 0 seats at 4.9% of the vote and 6 seats at 5.0%
New Zealand's threshold is a cliff: a party needs 5% of the party vote or one electorate seat, or its votes elect nobody. On the average of the six latest polls, that one tenth of a point decides whether the opposition bloc has a majority or nobody does.
Step 1 · Drag across the line
Where the Opportunity Party vote ends up
Opportunity seats
0
House size
0
NAT + ACT + NZF
0
LAB + GRN + TPM
0
Step 2 · The House that results
Every seat, left to right
The dial settings below drive this diagram. Seats beyond 120 are overhang: a party that wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to keeps them all, and nobody else loses a seat.
Step 3 · Your own election night
Set the party vote and the electorates
Electorate seats won (71 in total)
An electorate win is a seat whatever the party vote, and it lifts a party past the threshold. Default: Greens 3, ACT 2 and Te Pāti Māori 6 as in 2023, Labour 31 and National 29 as an assumed even split of the rest. Electorates are decided locally, so treat that split as a placeholder you can change.
Step 4 · Check the arithmetic
Rerun 2023 with the same code
The same seat calculation, fed with the 2023 party votes and electorate wins, reproduces the official 122-seat House. Look at the last two rows: Te Pāti Māori's 87,844 votes won 6 seats, the Opportunity Party's 63,344 won none.
The inputs
The six latest polls (tap a row to load it)
Poll results are sample estimates with a margin of error near 3 points at the large parties and about 1.4 points at 5%. A party sitting at 5% is a coin flip on polling alone.