With 100% of polling stations counted, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reports 47.03% of valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Neither passed 50%, so the two meet again on 25 October.
The country splits along a familiar line: Lula wins all nine states of the Northeast, Flávio Bolsonaro wins every state in the South, Southeast and Centre-West, and the North is divided. About 9.3 million valid votes went to the ten other candidates. Explore the map, see which states produce the national gap, and test the runoff arithmetic yourself.
Each tile is one state, placed roughly where it sits on the map. Tap a tile for details.
Net vote lead per state (winner's votes minus runner-up's votes), sorted by size. Large states dominate: São Paulo alone gives Flávio Bolsonaro a bigger lead than the national total, while Bahia almost cancels out São Paulo for Lula.
A what-if tool, not a forecast. It starts from the first-round result and asks: what happens if the voters of the other ten candidates split in a given way? It assumes the same people turn out and nobody switches between the two finalists.
The rest vote blank, spoil the ballot or stay home.
50% means an even split. Move right for more to Lula, left for more to Flávio Bolsonaro.
Method: each finalist keeps their first-round votes. Votes of the other candidates (9,316,747 nationally) are multiplied by the first slider and split by the second. Shares are of valid votes in the runoff. Real runoffs also depend on new voters, abstainers who return, and people who change their mind, none of which are modelled here.
Shares are of valid votes. Turnout is voters who showed up as a share of the electorate. Tap a column header to sort.